Dissecting the indirect effects caused by vaccines into the basic elements

Vaccination directly protects vaccinated individuals, but it also has the potential for indirectly protecting the unvaccinated in a population (herd protection). Unintended negative consequences such as the re-manifestation of infection, mainly expressed as age shifts, result from vaccination programs as well. We discuss the necessary conditions for achieving optimal herd protection (i.e., high quality vaccine-induced immunity, substantial effect on the force of infection, and appropriate vaccine coverage and distribution), as well as the conditions under which age shifts are likely to occur. We show examples to illustrate these effects. Substantial ambiguity in observing and quantifying these indirect vaccine effects makes accurate evaluation troublesome even though the nature of these outcomes may be critical for accurate assessment of the economic value when decision makers are evaluating a novel vaccine for introduction into a particular region or population group. More investigation is needed to identify and develop successful assessment methodologies for precisely analyzing these outcomes.