Russia, Ukraine and state survival through neutrality

This article draws on the security policies of one-time neutral countries like Austria, Finland and Moldova, to probe the case for Ukraine as a sovereign but potentially neutral state. For Ukraine, a form of armed neutrality outside NATO could be a way to preserve sovereignty and statehood beyond the current war with Russia. The article has implications for western policy-making on the Russia-Ukraine war. During the Cold War neutrality and a 'non-bloc' status were used by certain European states to escape great power rivalries. But these foreign and security policy strategies declined in significance and have received little scholarly attention since the early 1990s. This article argues that in a period of renewed confrontation between Russia and western powers, significant insights may be derived from a critical review of the past experiences of neutral and non-bloc states. These help scholars and practitioners assess the contemporary options of states in vulnerable locations which choose or are compelled to survive outside alliances. This article probes the critical case of Ukraine as a sovereign but potentially neutral state. Relevant criteria for neutrality are drawn from short interpretive case-studies of Austria and Finland during the Cold War, as well as Moldova and Finland in post-Cold War years. Soviet and Russian policy prioritized the strategic denial of these states to NATO, while forms of armed neutrality helped sustain conventional deterrence against Russian coercion. If Moscow reigns in its ambitions for the political subjugation of Ukraine and accepts its statehood, such thinking may form part of an eventual security policy settlement beyond the current war.