On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

被引：49
作者：
Tol, Richard S. J. [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Brighton, E Sussex, England
[2] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[3] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[4] Univ Sussex, Falmer BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England
来源：
ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS | 2012年 / 53卷 / 01期
关键词：
Climate change; Economic impact; Meta-analysis; Social cost of carbon; DAMAGE COSTS;
D O I：
10.1007/s10640-012-9549-3
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3A degrees C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3A degrees C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7A degrees C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.
引用
收藏
页码：97 / 116
页数：20
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