Probabilistic study of cascading failures in complex interdependent lifeline systems

The internal complexity of lifeline systems and their standing interdependencies can operate in conjunction to amplify the negative effects of external disruptions. This paper introduces a simulation-based methodology to evaluate the joint impact of interdependence, component fragilities, and cascading failures in systemic fragility estimates. The proposed strategy uses a graph model of interdependent networks, an enhanced betweenness centrality for cascading failures approximation, and an interdependence model accounting for coupling uncertainty in the simulation of damage propagation for probabilistic performance assessment. This methodology is illustrated through its application to a realistic set of power and water networks subjected to earthquake scenarios and random failures. Test case results reveal two key insights: (1) the intensity of a perturbation influences interdependent systemic fragility by shaping the magnitudes of initial component damage and, sometimes counter-intuitively, the subsequent interdependence effects and (2) increasing local redundancy mitigates the effects of interdependence on systemic performance, but such intervention is incapable of eliminating interdependent effects completely. The previous insights provide basic guidelines for the design of systemic retrofitting policies. Additionally, the limitations of local capacity redundancy as a fragility control measure highlight the need for a critical assessment of intervention strategies in distributed infrastructure networks. Future work will assess the fragility-reduction efficiency of strategies involving informed manipulation of individual systemic topologies and the interdependence interfaces connecting them. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.