Increasing prevalence of familial recurrence of multiple sclerosis in Iran: a population based study of Tehran registry 1999-2015

Background: Tehran is the capital of Iran with an increasing multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence. A retrospective population-based study was conducted to evaluate the trends of MS prevalence in Tehran. Methods: A population-based survey was conducted for the period 1999 to 2015, based on Iranian MS Society (IMSS) registry system of Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Point regression analysis was applied on MS trend data to find annual percent change (APC). The logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for individual variables in order to assess factors associating with familial recurrence of MS. P values < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: MS prevalence has significantly increased during the study period from 1999 to 2015 (56.22 per 100,000). Total point prevalence of MS was 115.94 per 100,000 persons in 2015 compared to general population. Positive family history of MS was observed among 12.4% of patients. The strongest association amongst first-degree relatives was found in siblings, p value <= 0.001. Conclusion: MS prevalence is rising in Tehran and this city is one of the regions with highest MS prevalence in Asia. In this sample, the largest proportion of relatives with MS were found among first-degree relatives, particularly siblings. Familial recurrence correlated with relative type.