Climate, conflict and forced migration

被引:294
作者
Abel, Guy J. [1 ,2 ]
Brottrager, Michael [3 ,4 ]
Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo [5 ,6 ]
Muttarak, Raya [2 ,7 ]
机构
[1] Shanghai Univ, ADRI, Shanghai, Peoples R China
[2] IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
[3] Johannes Kepler Univ Linz JKU, Linz, Austria
[4] Vienna Univ Econ & Business WU, Vienna, Austria
[5] Vienna Univ Econ & Business WU, IIASA, Welthandelspl 1, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
[6] Austrian Inst Econ Res WIFO, Welthandelspl 1, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
[7] Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Norwich, Norfolk, England
来源
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2019年 / 54卷
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Asylum seeker; Climate change; Conflict; Endogenous selection; Forced migration; Gravity model; Refugee; Simultaneous equations; SPEI; INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION; ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION; CIVIL CONFLICT; ARMED-CONFLICT; VARIABILITY; DROUGHT; DETERMINANTS; DISASTERS; RAINFALL; DATASET;
D O I
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.
引用
收藏
页码:239 / 249
页数:11
相关论文
共 72 条
[1]   Sampling bias in climate-conflict research [J].
Adams, Courtland ;
Ide, Tobias ;
Barnett, Jon ;
Detges, Adrien .
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2018, 8 (03) :200-+
[2]  
[Anonymous], 1993, P 8 C APPL CLIM BOST
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2010, Environment, scarcity, and violence
[4]   Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis [J].
Backhaus, Andreas ;
Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada ;
Muris, Chris .
IZA JOURNAL OF MIGRATION, 2015, 4
[5]   Security and climate change [J].
Barnett, J .
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2003, 13 (01) :7-17
[6]   The Effect of Rainfall on Migration from Mexico to the United States [J].
Barrios Puente, Geronimo ;
Perez, Francisco ;
Gitter, Robert J. .
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW, 2016, 50 (04) :890-909
[7]   Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa [J].
Barrios, Salvador ;
Bertinelli, Luisito ;
Strobl, Eric .
JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 2006, 60 (03) :357-371
[8]   A MULTISCALAR GLOBAL DROUGHT DATASET: THE SPEIBASE A New Gridded Product for the Analysis of Drought Variability and Impacts [J].
Begueria, Santiago ;
Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. ;
Angulo-Martinez, Marta .
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2010, 91 (10) :1351-1354
[9]  
Beine M., 2018, CREA DISCUSSION PAPE, V18-05
[10]   Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration [J].
Beine, Michel ;
Parsons, Christopher .
SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, 2015, 117 (02) :723-767