Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

被引：46

作者：

Azose, Jonathan J. ^{[1
]}

Raftery, Adrian E. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

来源：

DEMOGRAPHY | 2015年 / 52卷 / 05期

基金：

爱尔兰科学基金会;

关键词：

Autoregressive model; Bayesian hierarchical model; Markov chain Monte Carlo; World population prospects; POPULATION FORECASTS; FLOW TABLES; COUNTRIES; UNCERTAINTY; MODELS; FERTILITY;

D O I：

10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0

中图分类号：

C921 [人口统计学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model.

引用

页码：1627 / 1650

页数：24

共 33 条

[1] Quantifying Global International Migration Flows [J].