Observed 21st century temperatures further constrain likely rates of future warming

被引：18

作者：

Stott, Peter A. ^{[1
]}

Jones, Gareth S. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2012年 / 13卷 / 03期

关键词：

detection and attribution; climate change; climate modelling; climate prediction; decadal prediction; CLIMATE-CHANGE; UNCERTAINTY; PREDICTIONS;

D O I：

10.1002/asl.383

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

We carry out a detection and attribution analysis of observed near-surface temperatures to 2010 and demonstrate that the signal of human influence on climate has strengthened over the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, we show that global warming is set to continue, with the second decade of the 21st century predicted to be very likely warmer than the first. Estimates of future warming rates consistent with observations of past climate change are now better constrained than they were a decade ago. The highest rates of warming previously consistent with past warming now appear to be unlikely. (c) 2012 British Crown copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

引用

收藏

页码：151 / 156

页数：6

相关论文

共 26 条

[1] Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change [J].

Allen, M. R. ;

Gillett, N. P. ;

Kettleborough, J. A. ;

Hegerl, G. ;

Schnur, R. ;

Stott, P. A. ;

Boer, G. ;

Covey, C. ;

Delworth, T. L. ;

Jones, G. S. ;

Mitchell, J. F. B. ;

Barnett, T. P. .

SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS, 2006, 27 (05) :491-544

[2] Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change [J].

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA ;

Mitchell, JFB ;

Schnur, R ;

Delworth, TL .

NATURE, 2000, 407 (6804) :617-620

[3] Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory [J].

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2003, 21 (5-6) :477-491

[4] Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting [J].

Allen, MR ;

Tett, SFB .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1999, 15 (06) :419-434

[5]

[Anonymous], 2009, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI DOI 10.1175/BAMS-90-8-STATE0FTHECLIMATE

[6] Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability [J].

Booth, Ben B. B. ;

Dunstone, Nick J. ;

Halloran, Paul R. ;

Andrews, Timothy ;

Bellouin, Nicolas .

NATURE, 2012, 484 (7393) :228-U110

[7] Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850 [J].

Brohan, P. ;

Kennedy, J. J. ;

Harris, I. ;

Tett, S. F. B. ;

Jones, P. D. .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2006, 111 (D12)

[8] Is the climate warming or cooling? [J].

Easterling, David R. ;

Wehner, Michael F. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36

[9] Alternatives to stabilization scenarios [J].

Frame, D. J. ;

Stone, D. A. ;

Stott, P. A. ;

Allen, M. R. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2006, 33 (14)

[10] Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations [J].

Gillett, N. P. ;

Arora, V. K. ;

Flato, G. M. ;

Scinocca, J. F. ;

von Salzen, K. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2012, 39