The extreme European summer of 2015 in a long-term perspective

被引:110
作者
Hoy, Andreas [1 ]
Haensel, Stephanie [1 ]
Skalak, Petr [2 ,3 ]
Ustrnul, Zbigniew [4 ,5 ]
Bochnicek, Oliver [6 ]
机构
[1] TU Bergakad Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environm Res Ctr, Brennhausgasse 14, D-09599 Freiberg, Germany
[2] Czech Hydrometeorol Inst, Prague, Czech Republic
[3] AS CR, Global Change Res Ctr, Brno, Czech Republic
[4] Jagiellonian Univ, Inst Geog & Spatial Management, Krakow, Poland
[5] Inst Meteorol & Water Management, Krakow, Poland
[6] Slovak Hydrometeorol Inst, Bratislava, Slovakia
关键词
heat; drought; climate indices; SPI; SPEI; mRAI; WBAI; HEAT WAVES; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY; MOISTURE VARIABILITY; DROUGHT; PRECIPITATION; MORTALITY; TRENDS; IMPACT; DRY; SEVERITY;
D O I
10.1002/joc.4751
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
In 2015, large parts of Europe were characterized by extraordinary high summer temperatures, accompanied by very dry conditions, particularly in central-eastern Europe. Several major heat episodes occurred from the end of June until mid-September. We provide an ad-hoc evaluation of the observed climatological extremes in a secular context, by using a set of long station time series in daily resolution. Our data set comprises 42 temperature and 43 precipitation records, predominantly starting already in the 19th century. To investigate local record values, the individual full record length is analysed for each station, while regionally averaged analyses are presented for the core study period of 1901-2015. The study area covers Europe's central latitudes (44 degrees to 52 degrees N), extending from England in the west up to the central Ukraine in the east. During summer 2015, various indices representing extremely high maximum and minimum temperatures (strongly) exceeded previous record high values, mainly in an area extending from eastern Germany to western Ukraine. Additionally, severely to extremely dry conditions with unusually frequent dry days were prevailing particularly in the (central-) eastern part of the study area. Drought indices combining temperature and precipitation revealed drought conditions comparable or even worse than those of former extreme summers like 2003.
引用
收藏
页码:943 / 962
页数:20
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