Indicators of climate chance for the Russian Federation

Observed climate changes over the Russian Federation (RF) territory are considered. Several indicators based on monthly mean temperature and precipitation station data are used to quantify regional climate changes. Some of these are the components of two aggregated indices of climate change, suggested by Karl et al. (1996). the Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and the Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI). For the RF territory as a whole, and for its western part, the "Russian Permafrost Free (RPF) territory" in particular, changes in surface air temperature are investigated, together with changes in precipitation and drought indices, and also the fraction of the Russian territory experiencing climatic anomalies below and/or above certain specified percentiles. Composite indices CEI-3 and GCRI-3 based on three parameters (air temperature, precipitation and drought indices) are examined, as well as the Climate Anomaly Index (CAI), known in Russia as Bagrov's coefficient of "anomality". It is shown, that over the area of the RPF as a whole, air temperature and the occurrence of drought has increased somewhat during the 20th century, while precipitation has decreased; these changes were non-uniform in space. The linear trend accounts for only a small fraction of the total variability, but the role of climate variations on decadal scales seems more substantial. The CEI, determined as the percentage of the area experiencing extreme anomalies (with a 10% or less frequency of occurrence) of either sign, increased for mean annual temperature, decreased for total precipitation and increased slightly for the occurrence of drought conditions; the aggregated index based on all three of these quantities increased slightly. There was also an increase in the GCRI-3 index, which is indicative of an agreement between the observed climate changes and the changes owing to the greenhouse effect as predicted by climatic models. The observed climate changes are too small to enable us confidently to reject a hypothesis that they are a reflection of the natural variability of climatic parameters within the context of a stationary climate. However, there is no doubt about the reality and importance of the observed changes.