Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology

Projections of energy demand are important for energy security supply and low carbon futures, and usually rely on final energy consumption trends methods, limiting the opportunity for future options. Methods supported by energy services are much preferred to estimate future energy demand, since they are better suited to accomplish end-users needs. Final energy can then be assessed through complementary tools, as technological models, resulting in deeper knowledge on the relation between energy services and technology options. This paper presents a bottom-up methodology to project detailed energy end-uses demand in the Portuguese residential buildings until 2050, aiming to identify the parameters governing energy services demand uncertainty, through a sensitivity analysis. The partial equilibrium TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model was used to assess technology options and final energy needs for the range of parameters variations for each end-use, allowing to conclude on the impact of uncertainty of energy services demand in final energy. Main results show that technology can overweight behavioral practices and lifestyle changes for some end-uses as in space heating and lighting. Nevertheless, important focus should be given to uncertain parameters related with consumer behavior, especially those on heating and other electric end-uses, as thermal comfort and equipment's use. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.