Will switching to LED outdoor lighting increase sky glow?

As LED sources are increasingly being used for outdoor lighting, concerns are being raised about their impact on man-made sky glow. This paper compares the amount of light scattered back to Earth from a 6500 K phosphor-converted white LED light source to that from a 2050 K high pressure sodium (HPS) light source. Calculations based solely on molecular Rayleigh scattering provide an upper limit of 22% more scatter from the LED source, but are not realistic because the atmosphere has significant scatter from aerosol content. Adding in the effects of aerosols in the atmosphere, as derived from aerosol optical depth measurements and Mie scattering distributions, reduces the wavelength dependency of scattered light to where the LED source has roughly 10-20% more scattered light contributing to sky glow. Scattering ratios (LED:HPS) are calculated for different angles and atmospheric conditions.