Simple prediction model for unfavorable outcome in ischemic stroke after intravenous thrombolytic therapy

Objective: We aimed to develop a model to predict unfavorable outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolytic therapy (IVT), based on simple variables present on admission. Methods: Retrospective analysis of acute ischemic stroke patients treated with IVT in a hospital in Rio de Janeiro. Clinical and radiographic variables were selected for analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model. Results: We analyzed a total of 82 patients. Median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) on admission was 9 (3-22), 40.2% presented with a hyperdense artery sign (HAS), 62% had identifiable early parenchymal changes and 61.6% experienced a favorable outcome. An NIHSS score of > 12 on arrival, age > 70 and the presence of HAS were associated with the outcome, even after correction in a logistic regression model. Conclusion: An NIHSS > 12 on arrival, presence of HAS and age > 70 years were predictors of unfavorable outcome at three months in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with IVT.