Dynamics of an imprecise SIRS model with Levy jumps

被引：8

作者：

Bao, Kangbo ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Qimin ^{[1
]}

Rong, Libin ^{[2
]}

Li, Xining ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Ningxia Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Yinchuan 750021, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Florida, Dept Math, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

来源：

PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS | 2019年 / 520卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Stochastic SIRS epidemic model; Levy jumps; Interval number; Extinction; Persistence; SIS EPIDEMIC MODEL; THRESHOLD; EXTINCTION; BEHAVIOR; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.027

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

Sudden environmental perturbations may affect population dynamics. Parameters of mathematical models can also be imprecise due to uncertainties and unknown data. How sudden environmental noise and parameter imprecision influence the dynamics of epidemic systems remains unclear. This paper studies a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model that includes Levy jumps and interval parameters. We prove that the model has a unique global positive solution. Sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction of the disease are obtained. Large noise intensity is able to suppress the emergence of disease outbreaks. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the influence of stochastic noise on disease dynamics. These results suggest that Levy jumps and imprecise parameters can greatly affect the long-term behavior of the epidemic system. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：489 / 506

页数：18