Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms

被引:9
|
作者
Agnello, Luca [1 ]
Castro, Vitor [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Jalles, Joao Tovar [5 ]
Sousa, Ricardo M. [3 ,4 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Palermo, Dept Econ Business & Stat SEAS, I-90128 Palermo, Italy
[2] Univ Coimbra, Fac Econ, P-3004512 Coimbra, Portugal
[3] Univ Minho, Dept Econ, P-4710057 Braga, Portugal
[4] Univ Minho, Econ Policies Res Unit NIPE, P-4710057 Braga, Portugal
[5] OECD, Econ Dept, F-75775 Paris 16, France
[6] Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, LSE Alumni Assoc, London WC2A 2AE, England
关键词
fiscal consolidation; financial reforms; macroeconomic determinants; rare events logit model; ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS; CRISES; DEBT; UNEMPLOYMENT; DETERMINES; QUALITY;
D O I
10.1080/00036846.2015.1021457
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We use a rare events logistic regression model as well as traditional probit and logit models to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980-2005. We show that large austerity plans, mainly implemented through spending cuts rather than tax hikes, promote financial reforms. By considering reforms affecting specific areas of the financial sector, we find that the banking sector reforms and domestic finance reforms are more likely to occur when fiscal adjustments are put in place. Interestingly, while banking sector reforms are mainly prompted during periods of tax-driven consolidations, spending cuts driven consolidation packages seem to propel the implementation of domestic finance reforms. Finally, we show that higher inflation, lower degree of trade openness, a deterioration of financial conditions and, to some extent, a fall in the degree of competitiveness enhance the probability of financial reforms.
引用
收藏
页码:3740 / 3755
页数:16
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