Model to assess the impacts of external drivers on the hydrology of the Ganges River Basin

被引:0
作者
Muthuwatta, Lal [1 ]
Sood, Aditya [1 ]
Sharma, Bharat [1 ]
机构
[1] Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka
来源
EVOLVING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS: UNDERSTANDING, PREDICTING AND MANAGING WATER-SOCIETY INTERACTIONS | 2014年 / 364卷
关键词
Ganges River Basin; climate change; Soil and Water Assessment Tool;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Ganges River Basin (GRB) is simulated by using a hydrological model - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Climate data from the GCM, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) was downscaled with PRECIS for the GRB under A 1 B Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios. The annual average precipitation will increase by 2.2% and 14.1% by 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to the baseline period (1981-2010). Spatial distribution of the future precipitation shows that in the substantial areas of the middle part of the GRB, the annual precipitation in 2030 and 2050 will be reduced compared to the baseline period. Simulations indicate that in 2050 the total groundwater recharge would increase by 12%, while the increase of evapotranspiration will be about 10% compared to the baseline period. The Water yield is also expected to increase in the future (up to 40% by 2050 compared to baseline), especially during the wetter months. The model setup is available for free from IWMI's modelling inventory.
引用
收藏
页码:76 / 81
页数:6
相关论文
共 12 条
[1]  
Abbaspour C.K., 2009, SWAT CUP2 USER MANUA
[2]  
Arnold J.G., 2002, TR191 TWRI, DOI DOI 10.1055/S-0029-1192096
[3]   Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment - Part 1: Model development [J].
Arnold, JG ;
Srinivasan, R ;
Muttiah, RS ;
Williams, JR .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, 1998, 34 (01) :73-89
[4]  
Bates B.C., 2008, LINKING CLIMATE CHAN
[5]  
Bharati L., 2011, 142 INT WAT MAN I
[6]   Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866-2006 [J].
Bhutiyani, M. R. ;
Kale, V. S. ;
Pawar, N. J. .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2010, 30 (04) :535-548
[7]  
Cruz RV, 2007, AR4 CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY, P469
[8]   Freshwater, climate change and adaptation in the Ganges River Basin [J].
Hosterman, Heather R. ;
McCornick, Peter G. ;
Kistin, Elizabeth J. ;
Sharma, Bharat ;
Bharati, Luna .
WATER POLICY, 2012, 14 (01) :67-79
[9]  
Nash J. E., 1970, Journal of Hydrology, V10, P282, DOI DOI 10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
[10]  
Parry M.L., 2007, IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability