What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

被引：55

作者：

Guan, Kaiyu ^{[1
,2
]}

Sultan, Benjamin ^{[3
]}

Biasutti, Michela ^{[4
]}

Baron, Christian ^{[5
]}

Lobell, David B. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[2] Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[3] Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, CNRS IRD MNHN, LOCEAN IPSL, Paris, France

[4] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA

[5] CIRAD UMR TETIS, Maison Teledetect, Montpellier, France

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2015年 / 42卷 / 19期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

rainfall; crop; sorghum; West Africa; climate change; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SORGHUM GENOTYPES; WATER-BALANCE; PHOTOPERIOD; SOIL; PRECIPITATION; VARIABILITY; PHENOLOGY; IMPACTS; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1002/2015GL063877

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

引用

页码：8001 / 8010

页数：10

共 34 条

[1] Durations of the photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive phases of time to panicle initiation in sorghum [J].

Alagarswamy, G ;

Reddy, DM ;

Swaminathan, G .

FIELD CROPS RESEARCH, 1998, 55 (1-2) :1-10

[2] From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact [J].

Baron, C ;

Sultan, B ;

Balme, M ;

Sarr, B ;

Traore, S ;

Lebel, T ;

Janicot, S ;

Dingkuhn, M .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2005, 360 (1463) :2095-2108

[3] What are the dominant features of rainfall leading to realistic large-scale crop yield simulations in West Africa? [J].

Berg, Alexis ;

Sultan, Benjamin ;

de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2010, 37

[4] Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive [J].

Biasutti, M. .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2013, 118 (04) :1613-1623

[5] Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate [J].

Biasutti, Michela ;

Sobel, Adam H. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36

[6] How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa? [J].

Cretat, Julien ;

Vizy, Edward K. ;

Cook, Kerry H. .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2014, 42 (9-10) :2691-2711

[7] A model of sorghum photoperiodism using the concept of threshold-lowering during prolonged appetence [J].

Dingkuhn, Michael ;

Kouressy, Manioutou ;

Vaksmann, Michel ;

Clerget, Benoit ;

Chantereau, Jacques .

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY, 2008, 28 (02) :74-89

[8]

Dingman L.S., 2008, Physical Hydrology, VSecond

[9] Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth [J].

Fan, Y. ;

Li, H. ;

Miguez-Macho, G. .

SCIENCE, 2013, 339 (6122) :940-943

[10] Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections [J].

Glotter, Michael ;

Elliott, Joshua ;

McInerney, David ;

Best, Neil ;

Foster, Ian ;

Moyer, Elisabeth J. .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2014, 111 (24) :8776-8781

← 1 2 3 4 →