Improved Epidemic Dynamics Model and Its Prediction for COVID-19 in Italy

被引：13

作者：

Wang, Han ^{[1
]}

Xu, Kang ^{[2
]}

Li, Zhongyi ^{[3
]}

Pang, Kexin ^{[4
]}

He, Hua ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Sci, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China

[2] Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China

[3] Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China

[4] Univ New South Wales, Business Sch, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

来源：

APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL | 2020年 / 10卷 / 14期

关键词：

COVID-19; simulation analysis; the infectious disease dynamics model discipline;

D O I：

10.3390/app10144930

中图分类号：

O6 [化学];

学科分类号：

0703 ;

摘要：

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health crisis due to its high contagious characteristics. In this article, we propose a new epidemic-dynamics model combining the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 and then use the reported epidemic data from 15 February to 30 June to simulate the spread of the Italian epidemic. Numerical simulations showed that (1) there was a remarkable amount of asymptomatic individuals; (2) the lockdown measures implemented by Italy effectively controlled the spread of the outbreak; (3) the Italian epidemic has been effectively controlled, but SARS-CoV-2 will still exist for a long time; and (4) the intervention of the government is an important factor that affects the spread of the epidemic.

引用

页数：12