Improved Epidemic Dynamics Model and Its Prediction for COVID-19 in Italy

被引:13
作者
Wang, Han [1 ]
Xu, Kang [2 ]
Li, Zhongyi [3 ]
Pang, Kexin [4 ]
He, Hua [1 ]
机构
[1] Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Sci, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China
[2] Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China
[3] Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China
[4] Univ New South Wales, Business Sch, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
来源
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL | 2020年 / 10卷 / 14期
关键词
COVID-19; simulation analysis; the infectious disease dynamics model discipline;
D O I
10.3390/app10144930
中图分类号
O6 [化学];
学科分类号
0703 ;
摘要
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health crisis due to its high contagious characteristics. In this article, we propose a new epidemic-dynamics model combining the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 and then use the reported epidemic data from 15 February to 30 June to simulate the spread of the Italian epidemic. Numerical simulations showed that (1) there was a remarkable amount of asymptomatic individuals; (2) the lockdown measures implemented by Italy effectively controlled the spread of the outbreak; (3) the Italian epidemic has been effectively controlled, but SARS-CoV-2 will still exist for a long time; and (4) the intervention of the government is an important factor that affects the spread of the epidemic.
引用
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页数:12
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