Distribution of transnational terrorism among countries by income class and geography after 9/11

This article applies an autoregressive intervention model for the 1968-2003 period to identify either income based or geographical transference of transnational terrorist events in reaction to the rise of fundamentalist terrorism, the end to the Cold War, and 9/11. Our time-series study investigates the changing pattern of transnational terrorism for all incidents and only those involving U. S. people and property. Contrary to expectation, there is no evidence of an income-based post-9/11 transfer of attacks to low-income countries except for attacks with U. S. casualties, but there is a significant transference to the Middle East and Asia where U. S. interests are, at times, attacked. We also find that the rise of fundamentalist terrorism has most impacted those regions - the Middle East and Asia - with the largest Islamic population. The end to the Cold War brought a "terrorism peace dividend" that varies by income and geography among countries. Based on the empirical findings, we draw policy recommendations regarding defensive counterterrorism measures.