SHOULD OIL PRICES RECEIVE SO MUCH ATTENTION? AN EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OIL PRICES FOR THE US ECONOMY

被引：26

作者：

Bachmeier, Lance ^{[1
]}

Li, Qi ^{[2
,3
]}

Liu, Dandan ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Kansas State Univ, Dept Econ, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA

[2] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA

[3] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[4] Bowling Green State Univ, Dept Econ, Bowling Green, OH 43403 USA

来源：

ECONOMIC INQUIRY | 2008年 / 46卷 / 04期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00095.x

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy-related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities.

引用

页码：528 / 539

页数：12

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