Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games

被引：7

作者：

Song, Kai ^{[1
,2
]}

Zou, Qingrong ^{[1
,2
]}

Shi, Jian ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION | 2020年 / 49卷 / 10期

关键词：

NBA outcome forecast; Bivariate normal mean regression; Performance statistics; Betting strategy; Market efficiency tests; FOOTBALL; MATCH;

D O I：

10.1080/03610918.2018.1520878

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the problem of modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games based on performance statistics. A bivariate normal mean regression model is developed to model the scores and performance statistics. Two methods for forecasting the performance statistics ex ante are proposed in order to predict the outcomes of NBA basketball games, including the final scores of two teams and the probability that a specific team wins the game. Besides, a betting strategy is developed and efficiency tests in the handicap betting market are conducted. Empirical study shows that the proposed model works well.

引用

页码：2604 / 2616

页数：13

共 29 条

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