The role of meteorology on predicting SO2 concentrations around a refinery:: A case study from Oman

In this work, SO2 correlations were developed for the prediction of maximum SO2 values and their locations around the vicinity of a refinery. The proposed correlations are capable of estimating the hourly maximum SO2 concentrations from meteorological conditions. Correlation parameters were calculated by multiple regression analysis, using maximum SO2 concentration as dependent variable and the meteorological parameters as independent variables. The SO2 data used for the development of these correlations were generated from the industrial source complex short-term (ISCST) model. It was found that wind speed and atmospheric stability class had the most effect on the predicted SO2 concentration whereas neither mixing height, nor wind direction, nor temperature had an influence on the maximum SO2 concentration. Therefore, the suggested correlations require only knowledge of the wind speed and stability class parameters. On the other hand, the developed correlations for estimating the locations of these maximum values of SO2 concentrations contained only one term that describes the dependence of the locations on wind direction. The derived correlations were shown to be statistically significant. They are much simpler to use than the ISCST model. Further, they are invaluable for determining locations at risk of exceeding the SO2 standard. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.