The Future of Solar Power in the United Kingdom

We used detailed industry data to analyse the impacts of expected further cost reductions on the competitiveness of solar power in Britain, and assess whether the solar market can survive without support in the near future. We investigated three solar power markets: large-scale, ground-mounted solar farms (defined in our analysis as larger than a 5000 kilowatt system); commercial roof-top (250 kW); and residential rooftop (3 kW). We found that all three would be economic without support in the next decade. Such an outcome assumes progressively falling support under a stable policy regime. We found that unsubsidised residential solar power may be cheaper with battery storage within the next five to 10 years. Unsupported domestic solar battery packs achieve payback periods of less than 10 years by 2025. That could create an inflexion point driving adoption of domestic solar systems. The variability of solar power will involve some grid integration costs at higher penetration levels, such as more frequent power market scheduling; more interconnector capacity; storage; and backup power. These costs and responses could be weighed against non-market benefits including the potential for grid balancing; lower carbon and particulate emissions; and energy security.