Not always second order: Subnational elections, national-level vote intentions, and volatility spillovers in a multi-level electoral system

被引:24
作者
Bechtel, Michael M. [1 ]
机构
[1] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Comparat & Int Studies, IFW C45 2, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
关键词
Vote intentions; Electoral campaigns; Subnational elections; Multi-level systems; Electoral institutions; GOVERNMENT FORMATION; DIVIDED GOVERNMENT; MIDTERM LOSS; INCUMBENCY; OPPOSITION; GERMANY; MODELS; LENGTH;
D O I
10.1016/j.electstud.2011.10.005
中图分类号
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要
The widespread second-order view on subnational elections leaves little room for the idea that subnational election campaigns matter for national-level electoral preferences. I challenge this perspective and explore the context-conditional role of subnational election campaigns for national-level vote intentions in multi-level systems. Campaigns direct citizens' attention to the political and economic "fundamentals" that determine their electoral preferences. Subnational election campaigns and the major campaign issues receive nation-wide media coverage. This induces all citizens in a country to evaluate parties at the national level even if they themselves are not eligible to vote in the upcoming subnational election. Thereby, subnational election campaigns may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of voters' national-level electoral preferences throughout the country, which is reflected by a decrease in the volatility of national-level vote intentions. I explore weekly vote intention data from Germany (1992-2007) within a conditional volatility model. Subnational elections reduce uncertainty in nation-wide federal-level vote intentions for major parties. However, patterns of incumbency and coalitional shifts moderate this volatility-reducing effect. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:170 / 183
页数:14
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