An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

被引：0

作者：

Glazer, Russell H. ^{[1
]}

Ali, M. M. ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy

[2] Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmosphere Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA

[3] AP Disaster Management Author, Kunchanapalli, India

来源：

NATURAL HAZARDS | 2020年 / 104卷 / 03期

关键词：

Bay of Bengal; Tropical cyclones; Potential intensity; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; MAXIMUM INTENSITY; HEAT-CONTENT; IMPACT; INDEX;

D O I：

10.1007/s11069-020-04289-x

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the most dangerous tropical cyclone (TC) region to humans in the world due to a combination of geographical and environmental factors. TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are a useful forecasting tool for evaluating favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC intensification; however, it assumes an idealized environment which omits several TC-environmental interactions. The present study compares the PI calculated using the SST (SST-PI) and the PI calculated taking into account ocean surface cooling and vertical wind shear (Environmental-PI) to the intensification rates of BoB TCs. A significant improvement is found in terms of explained variance when using Env-PI (13.5%) rather than SST-PI (3.5%). For slower moving TCs, the improvement is larger between Env-PI (25.5%) and SST-PI (4.9%). This study demonstrates that including an estimate of both oceanic and dynamical TC interactions in PI estimates lead to an improved estimate of future TC intensification in the BoB.

引用

页码：2635 / 2644

页数：10

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