Mask wearing in community settings reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission

被引：59

作者：

Leech, Gavin ^{[1
]}

Rogers-Smith, Charlie ^{[2
]}

Monrad, Joshua Teperowski ^{[3
]}

Sandbrink, Jonas B. ^{[3
,4
]}

Snodin, Benedict ^{[3
]}

Zinkov, Robert ^{[5
]}

Rader, Benjamin ^{[6
]}

Brownstein, John S. ^{[7
]}

Gal, Yarin ^{[8
]}

Bhatt, Samir ^{[9
,10
]}

Sharma, Mrinank ^{[11
,12
]}

Mindermann, Soren

Brauner, Jan M. ^{[3
]}

Aitchison, Laurence ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Bristol, Dept Comp Sci, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Oxford Appl & Theoret Machine Learning Grp, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[3] Future Humanity Inst, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[4] Univ Oxford, Med Sci Div, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[5] Univ Oxford, Dept Comp Sci, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[6] Boston Childrens Hosp, Computat Epidemiol Lab, Boston, MA 02215 USA

[7] Harvard Med Sch, Dept Pediat, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[8] Univ Oxford, Oxford Appl & Theoret Machine Learning Grp, Dept Comp Sci, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[9] Univ Copenhagen, Dept Publ Hlth, DK-1165 Copenhagen, Denmark

[10] Imperial Coll London, Med Res Council Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London SW7 2BX, England

[11] Univ Oxford, Dept Stat, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[12] Univ Oxford, Dept Engn Sci, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2022年 / 119卷 / 23期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会; 英国科研创新办公室; 英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

COVID-19; epidemiology; Bayesian modeling; hierarchical modeling; face masks; POLICIES;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.2119266119

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The effectiveness of mask wearing at controlling severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has been unclear. While masks are known to substantially reduce disease transmission in healthcare settings [D. K. Chu et al., Lancet 395, 1973-1987 (2020); J. Howard et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, e2014564118 (2021); Y. Cheng et al., Science eabg6296 (2021)], studies in community settings report inconsistent results [H. M. Ollila et al., medRxiv (2020); J. Brainard et al., Eurosurveillance 25, 2000725 (2020); T. Jefferson et al., Cochrane Database Syst. Rev. 11, CD006207 (2020)]. Most such studies focus on how masks impact transmission, by analyzing how effective government mask mandates are. However, we find that widespread voluntary mask wearing, and other data limitations, make mandate effectiveness a poor proxy for mask-wearing effectiveness. We directly analyze the effect of mask wearing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, drawing on several datasets covering 92 regions on six continents, including the largest survey of wearing behavior (n = 20 million) [F. Kreuter et al., https://gisumd.github.io/COVID-19-API-Documentation (2020)]. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we estimate the effect of mask wearing on transmission, by linking reported wearing levels to reported cases in each region, while adjusting for mobility and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as bans on large gatherings. Our estimates imply that the mean observed level of mask wearing corresponds to a 19% decrease in the reproduction number R. We also assess the robustness of our results in 60 tests spanning 20 sensitivity analyses. In light of these results, policy makers can effectively reduce transmission by intervening to increasemask wearing.

引用

页数：9

共 59 条

[11] Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 [J].