South African crop farming and climate change: An economic assessment of impacts

This paper assesses the economic impact of the expected adverse changes in the climate on crop farming in South Africa using a revised Ricardian model and data from farm household surveys, long-term climate data, major soils and runoffs. Mean annual estimates indicate that a 1% increase in temperature will lead to about US$ 80.00 increase in net crop revenue while a I mm/month fall in precipitation leads to US$ 2.00 fall, but with significant seasonal differences in impacts. There are also significant spatial differences and across the different farming systems. Using selected climate scenarios, the study predicts that crop net revenues are expected to fall by as much as 90% by 2100 with small-scale farmers been most affected. Policies therefore need to be fine-tuned and more focused to take advantage of the relative benefits across seasons, farming systems and spatially, and by so doing climate change may be beneficial rather than harmful. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.