Economical effects of the Weibull parameter estimation on wind energy projects

被引：2
|
作者：
Ramos-Robles, CA [1 ]
Irizarry-Rivera, AA [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR 00681 USA
来源：
37TH NORTH AMERICAN POWER SYMPOSIUM, PROCEEDINGS | 2005年
关键词：
engineering economics; least squares methods; maximum likelihood estimation; Monte Carlo methods; risk analysis; Weibull probability distribution;
D O I：
10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) and the Least Squares Estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.
引用
收藏
页码：597 / 602
页数：6
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Weibull parameter estimation methods on wind energy applications - a review of recent developments
    Bulut, Aydin
    Bingol, Okan
    THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2024, 155 (10) : 9157 - 9184
  • [2] Estimation of wind energy potential and Weibull parameter extrapolation of the city of Annaba, Algeria
    Berrezzek, F.
    Khelil, K.
    Bouadjila, T.
    2019 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ADVANCED ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING (ICAEE), 2019,
  • [3] Analysis of wind energy potential and Weibull parameter estimation methods: a case study from Turkey
    Gungor, A.
    Gokcek, M.
    Ucar, H.
    Arabaci, E.
    Akyuz, A.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 2020, 17 (02) : 1011 - 1020
  • [4] Analysis of wind energy potential and Weibull parameter estimation methods: a case study from Turkey
    A. Gungor
    M. Gokcek
    H. Uçar
    E. Arabacı
    A. Akyüz
    International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 2020, 17 : 1011 - 1020
  • [5] A Theoretical Analysis on Parameter Estimation for the Weibull Wind Speed Distribution
    Tuzuner, Akiner
    Yu, Zuwei
    2008 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING, VOLS 1-11, 2008, : 505 - 510
  • [6] The Influence of the Weibull Assumptlon in Monthly Wind Energy Estimation
    Garcia-Bustamante, E.
    Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.
    Jimenez, P. A.
    Navarro, J.
    Montavez, J. P.
    WIND ENERGY, 2008, 11 (05) : 483 - 502
  • [7] Influence of Weibull parameters on the estimation of wind energy potential
    Aziz, Abdoul
    Tsuanyo, David
    Nsouandele, Jl
    Mamate, Inouss
    Mouangue, Ruben
    Elé Abiama, Patrice
    Sustainable Energy Research, 2023, 10 (01)
  • [8] Performance Comparison of New Generation Parameter Estimation Methods for Weibull Distribution to Compute Wind Energy Density
    Onay, Ahmet Emre
    Dokur, Emrah
    Kurban, Mehmet
    ELEKTRONIKA IR ELEKTROTECHNIKA, 2021, 27 (05) : 41 - 48
  • [9] Application of moment function in Weibull distribution parameter estimation for wind speed
    Hao, Xiaohong
    Wang, Haipeng
    Chen, Wei
    Xiao, Jun
    Wang, Weizhou
    Dianli Zidonghua Shebei/Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2013, 33 (09): : 119 - 122
  • [10] Modern estimation of the parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis
    Seguro, JV
    Lambert, TW
    JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS, 2000, 85 (01) : 75 - 84
12345