Economical effects of the Weibull parameter estimation on wind energy projects

被引：2
作者：
Ramos-Robles, CA [1 ]
Irizarry-Rivera, AA [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR 00681 USA
来源：
37TH NORTH AMERICAN POWER SYMPOSIUM, PROCEEDINGS | 2005年
关键词：
engineering economics; least squares methods; maximum likelihood estimation; Monte Carlo methods; risk analysis; Weibull probability distribution;
D O I：
10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) and the Least Squares Estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.
引用
收藏
页码：597 / 602
页数：6
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