Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of functional risk curves based on Gaussian processes

A functional risk curve gives the probability of an undesirable event as a function of the value of a critical parameter of a considered physical system. In several applicative situations, this curve is built using phenomenological numerical models which simulate complex physical phenomena. To avoid cpu-time expensive numerical models, we propose to use Gaussian process regression to build functional risk curves. An algorithm is given to provide confidence bounds due to this approximation. Two methods of global sensitivity analysis of the model random input parameters on the functional risk curve are also studied. In particular, the PLI sensitivity indices allow to understand the effect of misjudgment on the input parameters' probability density functions. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.