This study predicted graft and recipient survival in kidney transplantation based on the USRDS dataset by regression models and artificial neural networks (ANNs). We examined single time-point models (logistic regression and single-output ANNs) versus multiple time-point models (Cox models and multiple-output ANNs). These models in general achieved good prediction discrimination (AUC up to 0.82) and model calibration. This study found that: (1) Single time-point and multiple time-point models can achieve comparable AUC, except for multiple-output ANNs, which may perform poorly when a large proportion of observations are censored, (2) Logistic regression is able to achieve comparable performance as ANNs if there are no strong interactions or non-linear relationships among the predictors and the outcomes, (3) Time-varying effects must be modeled explicitly in Cox models when predictors have significantly different effects on short-term versus long-term Survival, and (4) Appropriate baseline survivor function should be specified for Cox models to achieve good model calibration, especially when clinical decision support is designed to provide exact predicted survival rates. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Chonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Lim, Yongwhan
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Ahn, Joon Ho
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Lee, Seung Hun
Hyun, Dae Young
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Chonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Hyun, Dae Young
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Kim, Min Chul
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Chonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Chonnam Natl Univ, Med Sch, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Sim, Doo Sun
Hong, Young Joon
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Chonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Chonnam Natl Univ, Med Sch, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Hong, Young Joon
Kim, Ju Han
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Chonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
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Kim, Ju Han
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Ahn, Youngkeun
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Lee, Jang Hoon
Yoon, Chang-Whan
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Seoul Natl Univ, Coll Med, Dept Cardiol, Seoul, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Yoon, Chang-Whan
Lee, Sang Rok
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Chonbuk Natl Univ, Med Sch, Dept Cardiol, Jeonju, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Lee, Sang Rok
Hahn, Joo-Yong
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Sungkyunkwan Univ, Sch Med, Dept Cardiol, Seoul, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Hahn, Joo-Yong
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Jeong, Jin-Ok
Kim, Weon
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Kyung Hee Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Seoul, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Kim, Weon
Hwang, Jin-Yong
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Gyeongsang Natl Univ, Coll Med, Dept Cardiol, Jinju, South KoreaChonnam Natl Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Gwangju 501757, South Korea
Hwang, Jin-Yong
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Jeong, Myung Ho
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY,
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