Longitudinal follow up of dysglycemia in overweight and obese pediatric patients

Objective: To examine factors related to progression of dysglycemia in overweight and obese youth in a large primary care setting. Research design and methods: 10- to 18-year-old youth with body mass index (BMI) > 85 percentile and first-time A1c 5.7%-7.9% (39-63 mmol/mol) were identified retrospectively through electronic medical records (EMR). Levels of dysglycemia were defined as low-range prediabetes (LRPD; A1c 5.7%-5.9% [39-41 mmol/mol]), high-range prediabetes (HRPD; A1c 6.0%-6.4% [42-46 mmol/mol]), or diabetes-range (A1c 6.5%-7.9% [48 mmol/mol]). Follow-up A1c and BMI were extracted from the EMR. Follow up was truncated at the time of initiation of diabetes medication. Results: Of 11 000 youth, 547 were identified with baseline dysglycemia (mean age 14.5 2.2 years, 70% Hispanic, 23% non-Hispanic Black, 7% other). Of these, 206 had LRPD, 282 HRPD, and 59 diabetes. Follow-up A1c was available in 420 (77%), with median follow up of 12-22 months depending on A1c category. At follow-up testing, the percent with diabetes-range A1c was 4% in youth with baseline LRPD, 8% in youth with baseline HRPD, and 33% in youth with baseline diabetes-range A1c. There was a linear association between BMI increase and worsening A1c for LRPD (P < .001) and HRPD (P = .003). Conclusions: Most adolescents with an initial prediabetes or diabetes-range A1c did not have a diabetes-range A1c on follow up. Moreover, prediabetes-range A1c values do not all convey equal risk for the development of diabetes, with lower rates of progression for youth with initial A1c <6%. In youth with prediabetes-range A1c, BMI stabilization was associated with improvement of glycemia.