In vitro-in silico-based probabilistic risk assessment of combined exposure to bisphenol A and its analogues by integrating ToxCast high-throughput in vitro assays with in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) via physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling

Combined risk assessment of endocrine effects of bisphenol A (BPA) and its analogues, such as bisphenols S, F, and AF (BPS, BPF, and BPAF), is challenging due to lack of related common toxicity metrics. This study conducted a population-based in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models coupled with Monte Carlo simulations to convert ToxCast in vitro estrogen receptor (ER) assays to human equivalent doses (HEDs). The ER pathway-based HEDs were compared with HEDs from animal studies and used to assess the combined risks for different populations across different countries/regions in a probabilistic manner. The estimated ER pathway-based HEDs for the four bisphenols (BPs) matched the animal-derived HEDs. The HEDs for the ER gene transcription (the common biological process target among BPs) were 0.40 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles: 0.06-5.42), 4.43 (0.69-53.84), 3.30 (0.51-626.57), and 1.12 (0.16-9.73) mg/kg/day for BPA, BPS, BPF, and BPAF, respectively. Results suggest a potentially moderate concern for combined risks of activating the ER pathway for toddlers and adults with high dietary exposures. This study presents in vitro-based credible HEDs for the four BPs and represents an advancement in the application of in vitro-in silico-based alternative approaches in human health risk assessment.