The rational attacker in Russia? Negative campaigning in Russian presidential elections

Formal models of negative campaigning offer several predictions about the volume, sources, and targets of candidates' attacks on one another. We test these predictions and predictions drawn from other perspectives by analyzing public statements by candidates in the 1996 and 2000 Russian presidential campaigns. Our tests provide mixed support for the model-derived predictions. Concluding discussion centers on the need to reconsider some of the models' basic assumptions and to incorporate some neglected factors.