Economic Liberalization and Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Asymmetric GARCH Analysis

For small open economies, an understanding of movements in the exchange rate is imperative in analyzing trade and capital flows. In addition, reliable forecasting of exchange rate volatility is important in risk-taking assessment and investment decision-making, both of which are critical to long-term growth. Using an asymmetric GARCH-type approach, this paper examines the implications of economic liberalization on the stochastic behavior of the exchange rate series in a sample of sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries over the 1970-2004 period. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility is variable, and is less volatile under fixed exchange rate regime (pre-economic liberalization) and higher under flexible regime (post-economic liberalization), that is, it is asymmetric. For most of the countries, the EGARCH and TGARCH models are robust to parameter stability and gives better forecasting performance compared to the standard GARCH model.