Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

被引：118

作者：

Toreti, Andrea ^{[1
]}

Naveau, Philippe ^{[2
]}

Zampieri, Matteo ^{[3
]}

Schindler, Anne ^{[1
]}

Scoccimarro, Enrico ^{[3
,4
]}

Xoplaki, Elena ^{[1
]}

Dijkstra, Henk A. ^{[5
]}

Gualdi, Silvio ^{[3
,4
]}

Luterbacher, Juerg ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Giessen, Dept Geog, DE-35390 Giessen, Germany

[2] IPSL CNRS, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[3] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

[4] Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Bologna, Italy

[5] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys & Astron, Utrecht, Netherlands

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2013年 / 40卷 / 18期

关键词：

extreme events; precipitation; climate change; AMPLIFICATION; TEMPERATURE; CMIP5;

D O I：

10.1002/grl.50940

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extremes for the 21st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and future simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the representation of organized convective systems. Low intermodel variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes.

引用

页码：4887 / 4892

页数：6

共 40 条

[21] Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes [J].

Min, Seung-Ki ;

Zhang, Xuebin ;

Zwiers, Francis W. ;

Hegerl, Gabriele C. .

NATURE, 2011, 470 (7334) :378-381

[22] The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment [J].

Moss, Richard H. ;

Edmonds, Jae A. ;

Hibbard, Kathy A. ;

Manning, Martin R. ;

Rose, Steven K. ;

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ;

Carter, Timothy R. ;

Emori, Seita ;

Kainuma, Mikiko ;

Kram, Tom ;

Meehl, Gerald A. ;

Mitchell, John F. B. ;

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa ;

Riahi, Keywan ;

Smith, Steven J. ;

Stouffer, Ronald J. ;

Thomson, Allison M. ;

Weyant, John P. ;

Wilbanks, Thomas J. .

NATURE, 2010, 463 (7282) :747-756

[23] The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change [J].

O'Gorman, Paul A. ;

Schneider, Tapio .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2009, 106 (35) :14773-14777

[24]

Portner H.O., 2022, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, DOI DOI 10.1017/9781009325844

[25] On the origin of equatorial Atlantic biases in coupled general circulation models [J].