Ebola could be eradicated through voluntary vaccination

被引:32
作者
Brettin, Andrew [1 ]
Rossi-Goldthorpe, Rosa [2 ]
Weishaar, Kyle [3 ]
Erovenko, Igor V. [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Minnesota Twin Cities, Dept Math, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA
[2] Bowdoin Coll, Dept Math, Brunswick, ME 04011 USA
[3] Regis Univ, Dept Math, Denver, CO 80221 USA
[4] Univ North Carolina Greensboro, Dept Math & Stat, Greensboro, NC 27402 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Ebola; epidemiology; game theory; Nash equilibrium; uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; vaccination; TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS; VIRUS DISEASE; SELF-INTEREST; MODEL; SENSITIVITY; UNCERTAINTY;
D O I
10.1098/rsos.171591
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe infection with an extremely high fatality rate spread through direct contact with body fluids. A promising Ebola vaccine (rVSV-ZEBOV) may soon become universally available. We constructed a game-theoretic model of Ebola incorporating individual decisions to vaccinate. We found that if a population adopts selfishly optimal vaccination strategies, then the population vaccination coverage falls negligibly short of the herd immunity level. We concluded that eradication of Ebola is feasible if voluntary vaccination programmes are coupled with focused public education efforts. We conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to demonstrate that our findings do not depend on the choice of the epidemiological model parameters.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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