Projected changes in the drought hazard in Hungary due to climate change

In the Carpathian Basin, drought is a severe natural hazard that causes extensive damage. Over the next century, drought is likely to remain one of the most serious natural hazards in the region. Motivated by this hazard, the analysis presented in this paper outlines the spatial and temporal changes of the drought hazard through the end of this century using the REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulations. The aim of this study was to indicate the magnitude of the drought hazard and the potentially vulnerable areas for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, assuming the A1B emission scenario. The magnitude of drought hazard was calculated by aridity (De Martonne) and drought indices (Palfai drought index, standardised anomaly index). By highlighting critical drought hazard areas, the analysis can be applied in spatial planning to create more optimal land and water management to eliminate the increasing drought hazard and the related wind erosion hazard. During the 21st century, the drought hazard is expected to increase in a spatially heterogeneous manner due to climate change. On the basis of temperature and precipitation data, the largest increase in the drought hazard by the end of the 21st century is simulated to occur in the Great Hungarian Plain. Moreover, the changes in the extreme indices (e.g., days with precipitation greater than 30 mm, heat waves, dry periods, wet periods) suggest that the frequency and duration of drought periods will increase. The drought hazard is projected to be lowest in the westernmost part of Hungary. This result is based on qualitative and quantitative analyses that showed the changes in precipitation, temperature, and extreme indices.