On Modelling of the Development of Turnover in Services in Slovak Republic: Tourism Approach

Tourism plays an important role in the Slovak Republic because of its economic potential and the employment potential as well as its social and environmental impact. It means that there is the potential to contribute to employment and economic growth, as well as the development of rural, peripheral and less developed areas. There are many indicators or variables using which one can models the development of tourism. Widely used are number of arrivals or nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments. To explore tourism can be also used other forms of indicators. One of them is turnover in services which is divided by classification of economic activities (NACE Rev. 2) and obtains from Structural business statistics. The aim of this paper is to model the development of turnover in services of economic activities air transport, accommodation, travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities in Slovak Republic. For that purpose we use exponential smoothing and Box - Jenkins methodology and monthly data from January 2000 to January 2017.