THE PROLIFERATION OF COVID-19 IN SAUDI ARABIA ACCORDING TO GOMPERTZ MODEL

被引：2

作者：

Ben Dhahbi, Anis ^{[1
]}

Chargui, Yassine ^{[1
]}

Boulaaras, Salah ^{[2
]}

Rahali, Seyfeddine ^{[3
]}

Mhamdi, Abada ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Qassim Univ, Coll Sci & Arts ArRass, Dept Phys, Buraydah, Saudi Arabia

[2] Qassim Univ, Coll Sci & Arts ArRass, Dept Math, Buraydah, Saudi Arabia

[3] Qassim Univ, Coll Sci & Arts ArRass, Dept Chem, Buraydah, Saudi Arabia

[4] Univ Tunis El Manar, Fac Med Tunis, Tunis 1006, Tunisia

来源：

FRACTALS-COMPLEX GEOMETRY PATTERNS AND SCALING IN NATURE AND SOCIETY | 2022年 / 30卷 / 10期

关键词：

Mathematical Modeling; COVID-19; Gompertz Function; GROWTH-RATES;

D O I：

10.1142/S0218348X22402514

中图分类号：

O1 [数学];

学科分类号：

0701 ; 070101 ;

摘要：

Mathematical modeling can be a powerful tool to predict disease spread in large populations as well as to understand different factors which can impact it such as social distancing and vaccinations. This study aimed to describe the spread the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Saudi Arabia using a simple discrete variant of the Gompertz model. Unlike time-continuous models which are based on differential equations, this model treats time as a discrete variable and is then represented by a first-order difference equation. Using this model, we performed a short-term prediction of the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the country and we show that the results match the confirmed reports.

引用

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