Methodology for identifying urban growth potential using land use and population data: A case study of Islamabad Zone IV

Spatial growth is an inevitable phenomenon which depends on a number of factors like accessibility; availability of land for growth and favourable environment both at internal and external level are considered. In this study, a GIS based methodology has been proposed to identify future growth potential in the area Islamabad Zone IV of Islamabad, Pakistan. Village level population data (2007) is used to obtain population density and population centre; SPOT panchromatic satellite imagery (2007) shows that mostly GIS weighted overlay analysis has been used to extract relative future growth potential in the area. The study shows that nearly 63 percent of Zone IV carries a 'High' to 'Very High' future growth potential which is mainly located closer to Islamabad Highway. This methodology can be used to identify the varying future growth potential within an area. It provides useful information that which areas are more likely to become urban in future as compared to other areas. Such exercise can provide a cost effective solution to policy makers to aid future land use planning and building control. (C) 210 Published by Elsevier Ltd.