The Price Forecast Model of China-made Large Aircraft Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

This article adopts partial least squares regression method to forecast the price of domestic (China-made) large aircraft C919. With analysis of the pricing background and the relationship between performance index and price of foreign aircraft, we build preliminary model. And comparing with other modeling methods by calculating average relative error, we find the preliminary model fits better. Considering the difference in environment between domestic and foreign market, we propose the concept of discount factor. And the factor is equal to 0.6529 by analyzing domestic and foreign small aircrafts of the same type. Finally through modified model we get the forecast price, namely 48.95 million dollars per aircraft. The forecasting model and discount factor have some reference value to the price forecast of domestic large aircraft.