Non-Linear Effects of Turbulent Institutional Modernization

This article looks into new developments and additions to the concept of modernization generated by computer experiments with simulation models. The authors focused on the findings obtained within a number of modeling paradigms, including agent-oriented, system dynamics modeling, fractal geometry and self-organized criticality. The article presents a review of nonlinear effects emerging in the conditions of forced institutional modernization in the BRICS countries, for instance. The authors show that 'turbulent' modernization is typical for such countries, and is accompanied by a number of adverse factors, including cause-effect disbalance, phase transitions, sizable role of small-scale interactions, which (in some cases) may have a crucial effect on institutional dynamics. In particular, such effects have manifested themselves on the post-Soviet stage of the relations between the federal government and regional political elites in Russia. The article is also centered around issues related to preservation and expansion of traditional institutions and their influence on national modernization projects. The authors analyze the heuristic potential of different models for simulation of rapid disintegration of institutions and for the development of technologies propelling institution collapse. The present models imply the scenarios in which minor external impact may cause catastrophic consequences in a weak system of institutions ridden by archaic and dysfunctional norms and practices. The authors highlight the theoretical feasibility and practical need for non-disastrous scenarios of institutional modernization.