A Reliability-Based Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model for Signalized Traffic Network with Consideration of Link Travel Time Correlations

Traffic assignment model (TAM) is an important research issue of urban traffic design and planning. Most of the existing studies are conducted under deterministic conditions. In reality, the link travel time and waiting time at signalized intersections are stochastic due to many uncertain factors in transportation networks. Under this circumstance, this paper proposes a new travel time reliability-based user equilibrium (TRUE) traffic assignment model with consideration of link travel time correlations and waiting time at signalized intersections in stochastic traffic networks. Under the assumption that link travel times and waiting times at signalized intersections follow normal distributions, the proposed model is transformed into a variational inequality (VI) model. It is rigorously proven that there is at least one solution for the VI problem, and the method of successive average (MSA) is employed to solve the proposed model. The numerical experiments are used to illustrate the applications and effectiveness of the proposed model.