On the indirect elicitability of the mode and modal interval

被引:9
作者
Dearborn, Krisztina [1 ]
Frongillo, Rafael [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Colorado Boulder, Dept Math, Campus Box 395, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[2] Univ Colorado Boulder, Dept Comp Sci, 1111 Engn Dr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Elicitation; Point forecast; Scoring function; Loss function; Mode; Modal interval;
D O I
10.1007/s10463-019-00719-1
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Scoring functions are commonly used to evaluate a point forecast of a particular statistical functional. This scoring function should be consistent, meaning the correct value of the functional is the Bayes act, in which case we say the scoring function elicits the functional. Recent results show that the mode functional is not elicitable. In this work, we ask whether it is at least possible to indirectly elicit the mode, wherein one elicits a low-dimensional functional from which the mode can be computed. We show that this cannot be done: Neither the mode nor a modal interval is indirectly elicitable with respect to the class of identifiable functionals.
引用
收藏
页码:1095 / 1108
页数:14
相关论文
共 16 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2014, P MACHINE LEARNING R
[2]  
[Anonymous], 1985, THESIS
[3]   ESTIMATION OF THE MODE [J].
CHERNOFF, H .
ANNALS OF THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS, 1964, 16 (1-2) :31-41
[4]   Order-sensitivity and equivariance of scoring functions [J].
Fissler, Tobias ;
Ziegel, Johanna F. .
ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF STATISTICS, 2019, 13 (01) :1166-1211
[5]   HIGHER ORDER ELICITABILITY AND OSBAND'S PRINCIPLE [J].
Fissler, Tobias ;
Ziegel, Johanna F. .
ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 2016, 44 (04) :1680-1707
[6]  
Frongillo Rafael., 2015, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, P3258
[7]   Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation [J].
Gneiting, Tilmann ;
Raftery, Adrian E. .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 2007, 102 (477) :359-378
[8]   Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts [J].
Gneiting, Tilmann .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 2011, 106 (494) :746-762
[9]   SOME DIRECT ESTIMATES OF THE MODE [J].
GRENANDER, U .
ANNALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS, 1965, 36 (01) :131-138
[10]   The mode functional is not elicitable [J].
Heinrich, C. .
BIOMETRIKA, 2014, 101 (01) :245-251