Detection of water-quality contamination events based on multi-sensor fusion using an extented Dempster-Shafer method

This study presents a method for detecting contamination events of sources of drinking water based on the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory. The detection method has the purpose of protecting water supply systems against accidental and intentional contamination events. This purpose is achieved by first predicting future water-quality parameters using an autoregressive (AR) model. The AR model predicts future water-quality parameters using recent measurements of these parameters made with automated (on-line) water-quality sensors. Next, a probabilistic method assigns probabilities to the time series of residuals formed by comparing predicted water-quality parameters with threshold values. Finally, the D-S fusion method searches for anomalous probabilities of the residuals and uses the result of that search to determine whether the current water quality is normal (that is, free of pollution) or contaminated. The D-S fusion method is extended and improved in this paper by weighted averaging of water-contamination evidence and by the analysis of the persistence of anomalous probabilities of water-quality parameters. The extended D-S fusion method makes determinations that have a high probability of being correct concerning whether or not a source of drinking water has been contaminated. This paper's method for detecting water-contamination events was tested with water-quality time series from automated (on-line) water quality sensors. In addition, a small-scale, experimental, water-pipe network was tested to detect water-contamination events. The two tests demonstrated that the extended D-S fusion method achieves a low false alarm rate and high probabilities of detecting water contamination events.