Is There Herd Effect in Farmers' Land Transfer Behavior?

China's rural land transfer market has been plagued by issues including poor information transmission, limited scale, and an incoherent structure. In this context, this study collected the data of 337 farmers in Qufu City, Shandong Province, and incorporated into the analysis the acquaintance-based nature of rural society that includes strong geographic ties. Taking the herd effect as the starting point, this paper it considers how farmers in the same geo-network affect the land transfer behavior of individual farmers, and adopts the Probit model to analyze the impact of geo-networks to verify the function of the herd effect in farmers' land transfer behavior. Then, the IV-Probit model is applied to solve the endogenous problem of the herd effect. The results show that: (1) Farmers imitate the land transfer behavior of other farmers in the same geo-network. Geo-networks positively impact the land transfer behavior of farmers, and the herd effect is apparent in farmers' land transfer behavior. (2) Farmers' family background, resource endowment, and cognitive features are key factors that influencing farmers' land transfer behavior. (3) Farmers' land transfer behavior is more significantly influenced in groups with low and middle agricultural income than in groups with high agricultural income. This study aims to assist the government in giving full play to the positive role of the herd effect, promoting the leading role of village cadres as leader sheep, and smoothing the transmission of land transfer information. Governments should place more emphasis on developing land transfer platforms and invest more in the construction of farmland infrastructure. This paper may serve as a reference to achieve large-scale agriculture operation via land transfer and promote the prosperity of the land transfer market.