Osteoporosis risk prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

The aim of the study is to optimize the method of osteoporosis (OP) risk prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) by using specific and sensitive diagnostic criteria. Materials and methods. The design of the risk prediction method of the OP development in patients with type 2 DM and NAFLD was conducted by using the most significant diagnostic indicators. The calculation method of the OP risk probability in patients with type 2 DM and NAFLD was developed by using statistical methods of multivariate factor analysis and logistic regression. The method was evaluated in the Clinic of the State Institution "V. Danilevsky Institute for Endocrine Pathology Problems of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine" in 51 patients, whose average age was 63.2 +/- 0.99 years with the average duration of type 2 DM 7.84 +/- 0.68 years. Results. In order to establish the diagnostic accuracy of the proposed method of the OP development risk prediction in patients with type 2 DM and NAFLD, the data on all examined patients were analyzed and the following diagnostic characteristics were obtained: the sensitivity of the developed method is 88.23 %, the probability of a negative result with a negative prognosis, or the specificity of the developed method, is 70.58 %; the accuracy (the proportion of true-positive results and true-negative results) is 82.35 %, the odds ratio is 18.37. Conclusions. The proposed OP risk prediction method in patients with type 2 DM and NAFLD allows obtaining reliable predictions with sufficient accuracy for practical use. The application of this method will serve beyond assessing the risk of OP development, but also to provide timely treatment with drugs aimed to prevent the OP progression and to avoid complications, thereby reducing disability and influencing the quality of life.