Meeting the climate change challenges in river basin planning A scenario and model-based approach

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to present a scenario-based approach to river basin planning, and demonstrate how land-use planning can be utilised as a strong measure in meeting the climate change challenges with new precipitation patterns during the current century. Design/methodology/approach - The current research takes a scenario-based approach to river basin planning. A modelling framework is defined to assess the effects of active spatial planning to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in river basin management. In total, three models are included in the framework: a land-use model, a runoff model, and a flooding screening model. Findings - The research has demonstrated the advantages of using models and scenarios to assess the effects of climate change in river basin management, and how active spatial planning in the current example afforestation - can mitigate negative consequences of climate change. Research limitations/implications - The current research demonstrates how to combine models from different fields into one integrated model for impact assessment. Practical implications - The developed methodology will assist river basin managers to assess the effects of river basin management plans. Social implications - The consequences of climate change are mainstream topics discussed by most citizens and results from the models can facilitate a qualified debate. Originality/value - The paper analyses the feasibility of using active spatial planning to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, such as flooding along rivers. This work is original, as no such analysis has been carried out before.