Gold prices and gold production Evidence for South Africa

This paper develops a model of gold production which makes use of the relationship between the price of gold and the average mill pay limit, which allows for the possibility of an inverse gold supply curve. Increases in the price of gold, with constant production costs, reduce the average mill pay limit which gives an incentive for producers to step up production and move into deeper shafts of lower quality ore. If the decrease in the average grade of ore outweighs the increase in the quantity of ore milled, the actual amount of gold produced will fall. An econometric specification of the model using South African production data suggests that the necessary conditions for a perversely downward sloping supply curve of gold are unlikely to exist. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.